Fęrsluflokkur: Stjórnmįl og samfélag

Ef viš viljum nį višunandi Icesave samningi ķ žrišju umferš veršur InDefence aš vera meš ķ rįšum!

Žó žaš sé aušvitaš gott mįl aš hafa stjórnarandstöšuna meš ķ rįšum viš samningageršina, er žaš alls ekki nóg.  Bretar og Hollendingar hafa sagt aš žeir eru žvķ ašeins til ķ aš ganga aftur til samningavišręšna, ef viš getum įbyrgst aš samningarnir verši ķ žetta skipti örugglega samžykktir.  Til aš samningurinn yrši örugglega samžykktur ķ žrišju umferš, veršur aš fį óhįšan ašila sem nżtur trausts hjį žeim hluta žjóšarinnar sem hefur ekki veriš til ķ aš samžykkja fyrstu tvo samningana. 

Žar sem InDefence hópurinn stóš fyrir įskoruninni, sem fékk stušning frį fjóršungi atkvęšisbęrra manna, liggur beint viš aš hafa žį meš ķ rįšum frį upphafi višręšnanna, en ekki ašeins eftirį žegar allt hefur veriš įkvešiš og bśiš aš skrifa undir. 

Annaš atriši sem viš veršum aš vera meš į hreinu, er nįkvęmlega hvaš viš viljum fį śt śr samningunum?  Ef viš förum inn og heimtum allt sem viš viljum, munu Bretar og Hollendingar einfaldlega neita aš semja viš okkur. 

Ég hef veriš aš fjalla nokkrum sinnum ķ fyrri fęrslum, hvaša atriši eru mikilvęgust fyrir okkur fjįrhagslega aš breyta, og hafa auk žess žann kost aš žaš er frekar aušvelt aš sannfęra erlenda ašila um réttmęti žeirra:

1. Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš.  Žetta įkvęši (4.2(b) ķ Settlement samningnum), hefši einfaldlega aldrei įtt aš vera samžykkt af okkar samninganefnd, žegar upprunalegi Icesave samningurinn var saminn.  Ég hef įtt ķ miklum rökręšum viš erlenda ašila į ensku-męlandi vefsķšum (t.d. IceNews.is) alveg frį žvķ upprunalegi samningurinn var geršur ķ Jśnķ, og žetta er eina atrišiš žar sem žeir raunverulega samžykkja aš viš höfum fullkomlega rétt fyrir okkur.  Ég fjallaši um Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš vandlega ķ eftirfarandi fęrslu žar sem ég sżndi fram į aš leišrétta žetta atriši eitt og sér getur lękkaš skuldbindingu okkar um 0.5B Evra (85-90 milljarša), en ef įhrifin į vextina eru einnig talin meš (žar sem greišslurnar frį Landsbankanum munu koma inn tvöfalt hrašar til TIF), žį veršur lękkunin yfir 1.1B Evra (200 milljarša)!

Raunveruleg lausn hjį Icesave deilunni!

2. Vaxtagreišslurnar.  Žetta er tvķmęlalaust žaš atriši sem hefur mestu įhrifin į greišslubyršina vegna Icesave.  Samkvęmt nżjustu skżrslu frį skilanefndinni, žį eru vęntanlegar endurheimtur frį Landsbankanum 88%.  Ef viš mišum viš aš žaš sé rétt mat og aš allar eignir Landsbankans innheimtist jafnt dreift fyrir 2016, žį verša įbyrgšargreišslurnar sjįlfar eitthvaš nįlęgt 0.5B Evra (85-90 milljaršar), į mešan vextirnir verša einhvers stašar į bilinu 1.5B til 2.0B Evra (270 til 360 milljaršar).  Ég skrifaši nżlega żtarlega fęrslu į ensku, sem ég birti bęši hérna į moggablogginu og einnig į Martin Wolf“s Economists Forum, žar sem ég bendi į nokkrar mögulegar leišir til aš lękka vaxtabyršina af Icesave skuldbindingunni.

The Icesave Paradox: How can Iceland be against the current Icesave agreement, and still be absolutely committed to fulfill all its obligations?

Martin Wolf“s Economists Forum: How the Icelandic Saga Should End 
(sjį comment nśmer 8)

Žaš er mjög mikilvęgt aš gera nś ekki sömu mistökin enn aftur ķ žrišja skiptiš!  Ef viš einbeitum okkur ašallega aš žessum tveimur atrišum, Ragnar Hall og vextirnir, žį höfum viš góša möguleika į aš minnka heildar-greišslubyrši Ķslendinga um eitthvaš nįlęgt 250-300 milljarša króna, sem vęri aš mķnu mati mjög višunandi nišurstaša.


mbl.is Svara lķklega um helgina
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Vextirnir eru og hafa alltaf veriš ašalvandamįliš viš IceSave!

Ef viš viljum leysa žetta mįl meš samningum, žį veršum viš aš einbeita okkur aš žvķ eina atriši sem skiptir mestu mįli. Ķ žessu tilviki eru žaš óneitanlega vextirnir, sem verša lķklega einhvers stašar į bilinu 1.5B til 2.0B Evra (270 til 360 milljarša), mišaš viš tiltölulega hrašar endurheimtur verša į eignabśi gamla Landsbankans.

Til samanburšar mį geta aš greišslur af höfušstólnum verša u.ž.b. 0.4B til 1.0B Evra (72 til 180 milljarša), mišaš viš 75-90% endurheimtur. Vextirnir skipta greinilega okkur mjög miklu mįli og er žaš sem viš eigum aš einbeita okkur aš, ef samningar verša teknir upp aš nżju.

Eina undantekningin sem ég mundi vilja gera į žessu, er Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš, einfaldlega vegna žess aš žaš er svo mikiš réttlętismįl fyrir okkur, aš fariš verši aš fullu eftir Ķslenskum gjaldžrotalögum viš endurgreišslur śr Landsbankanum. Ef žaš yrši leišrétt, mundum viš sjįlfkrafa fį full 100% upp ķ Icesave skuldbindinguna, žar sem mat skilanefndarinnar į eignum Landsbankans er nśna 1164 milljaršar (6.4B Evrur).

Leišrétting į Ragnar Hall įkvęšinu mundi einnig hafa mikil įhrif į vaxtagreišslurnar, žar sem endurheimtur śr Landsbankanum greišast žį inn tvöfalt hrašar (vegna žess aš helmingur rennur ekki sjįlfkrafa til UK/NL lengur). Reiknast mér til aš vextirnir ķ žessu tilviki munu lękka nišur ķ eitthvaš nįlęgt 1.2B Evra (215 milljaršar).

Heildarsparnašurinn į žvķ aš nį Ragnar Hall įkvęšinu ķ gegn, er žvķ einhversstašar nįlęgt helmingur aš žvķ sem annars žyrfti aš greiša.

Meiri upplżsingar um śtreikningana į bak viš žessar tölur mį finna hér ķ žessari fęrslu:

Raunveruleg lausn į Icesave deilunni!

Męli lķka meš greininni frį Martin Wolf hjį Financial Times sem fjallar um stöšu Ķslands hvaš varšar vaxtagreišslurnar og mögulegar lausnir:

http://blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2010/01/how-the-icelandic-saga-should-end/


mbl.is Myndu stefna į lęgri vexti
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Jafnvel žó Icesave lögin verši felld, žį munu Bretar og Hollendingar alltaf fį greitt 6.4B Evra!

Jafnvel žó Icesave lögin verši felld ķ žjóšaratkvęšinu, žį munu Bretar og Hollendingar ALLTAF fį greitt allar eignir gamla Landsbankans, nśna įętlašar 6.4 milljarša evra (1164 ma. ISK), sem er meira en nóg til aš greiša alla Icesave "skuldina" 4.0 milljarša evra (720 ma. ISK).  Žaš er žvķ śt ķ hött aš halda žvķ fram aš viš ętlum ekki aš borga, eins og sumir ķ Bretlandi og Hollandi hafa veriš aš halda fram.  Viš eigum aš koma žessu atriši stanslaust į framfęri erlendis ķ gegnum ašila sem styšja okkar mįlstaš, eins og til dęmis Richard Quest.

Žaš mį finna meiri śtskżringar um žetta sérstaka atriši ķ eftirfarandi fęrslu:

Raunveruleg lausn hjį Icesave deilunni!

Ég bętti sķšan viš annari mjög ķtarlegri fęrslu, žar sem ég skżrši śt okkar mįlstaš į ensku og lagši upp nokkrar lausnir, sem aušvelt er aš sannfęra erlenda ašila um, og mętti mögulega nį meš frekari lķtilli fyrirhöfn:

The Icesave Paradox: How can Iceland be against the current Icesave agreement, and still be absolutely committed to fulfill all its obligations?


mbl.is Quest tekur mįlstaš Ķslands
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Nei Steingrķmur, žess vegna VERŠUM viš aš semja aftur viš Breta og Hollendinga!

Žaš žżšir ekkert aš stinga höfšinu ķ sandinn og tönnlast alltaf į sama hlutnum.  Žessi samningur er tapaš spil og veršur ekki samžykktur. Žaš er žvķ nśna įkvešiš tękifęri til aš semja upp į nżtt, ef viš erum nógu kjörkuš til aš lįta reyna į žaš. 

Ég skrifaši nżlega nokkuš langa fęrslu, žar sem ég stakk upp į raunverulegum lausnum, sem mį taka upp viš Breta og Hollendinga:

Raunveruleg lausn hjį Icesave deilunni!

Ég bętti sķšan viš annari mjög ķtarlegri fęrslu, žar sem ég skżrši śt okkar mįlstaš į ensku og lagši upp nokkrar lausnir, sem aušvelt er aš sannfęra erlenda ašila um, og mętti mögulega nį meš frekari lķtilli fyrirhöfn:

The Icesave Paradox: How can Iceland be against the current Icesave agreement, and still be absolutely committed to fulfill all its obligations?

Žessar lausnir byggši ég į margra mįnaša rökręšum sem ég tekiš mikinn žįtt ķ, viš erlenda ašila į Icenews.is vefsķšunni. Žetta eru raunverulegar lausnir, sem ég veit śt frį žessari sérstöku reynslu, aš virka gagnvart ašilum sem halda mįlstaš Breta og Hollendinga stķft fram!

Eina sem žarf er jįkvętt hugarfar og raunverulegan vilja til aš leysa mįliš!

mbl.is „Ekki einhliša innanrķkismįl“
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

The Icesave Paradox: How can Iceland be against the current Icesave agreement, and still be absolutely committed to fulfill all its obligations?

When the Icelandic President decided January 5th to send the current Icesave agreement to a national referendum, the response in the European press came in fast and furious.  How could Iceland go back on its word and refuse to pay for Icesave?  In the past few days though, the opinions have been slowly changing, as people are now starting to realize, that Iceland is NOT refusing to pay and it still fully intends to fulfill all its obligations.  To understand this seeming paradox, it is necessary to look at what is really going on behind the scenes.

1. The old Landsbanki (Icesave) bankruptcy proceedings. 

The old Landsbanki (LBI) winding-up board publishes regular reports on the status regarding recovery of assets and its liabilities:

http://lbi.is/creditorinformation/creditormeetings/

According to the most recent reports the key figures are:
(all amounts are converted to Euros using the current exchange rate ISK/EUR of 180.5)

Total assets of old Landsbanki:
819B ISK (4.5B Euros)
Bond from new Landsbanki (NBI): 345B ISK (1.9B Euros)
Total LBI assets available: 1164B ISK (6.4B Euros)

Total deposits (Icesave): 1319B ISK (7.3B Euros)

According to Icelandic laws, the depositors will have priority to all LBI assets during the winding-up process.  If we compare the total assets available with total deposits, it is clear that there are enough assets available to cover nearly all the deposits (1164/1319 = 88%).

As nearly all the Icesave depositors have already been paid out, it is actually the deposit insurance funds in each respective country that have taken over the original claims.  These are TIF in Iceland, FSCS in UK and DNB in Netherlands.  Furthermore, all payments to TIF will automatically be forwarded to FSCS/DNB, to cover the Icesave loans from those two funds.  So effectively ALL bankruptcy payments from the LBI will always go to FSCS/DNB in the end.  This obligation has already been fully accepted by Iceland without any dispute, irrespective of the Icesave agreement, as this is in accordance with the existing Icelandic bankruptcy laws and conventions.

2. So what then is the real problem with Icesave?

The problem is the actual agreement that was negotiated between Icelandic government and UK/Netherlands.  According the 94/19/EC directive (which itself has a lot of problems we will not go into here), each deposit guarantee fund is required to pay minimum of 20000 Euros per depositor.  For the Icelandic deposit insurance fund (TIF) this amount is actually a little bit higher or 20887 Euros, while UK and Netherlands unilaterally decided to pay considerably more.  When all the depositor claims are added up, the total liability for TIF in Iceland ends up being 2.35B GBP for UK and 1.329B Euros for the Netherlands.  To simplify, we will add these two amounts together and assume the total liability is instead 4.0B Euros.

If you compare the total liability of 4.0B Euros by TIF, with the total assets available 6.4B Euros by LBI, it is clear that it is more than enough to cover its obligations.  Now we come to the crux of the problem.  According to the current Icesave agreement, Iceland will only receive half of the recovery payments from old Landsbanki, and is therefore forced to pay MORE than just for the Icesave deposits!

3. Distribution of old Landsbanki (LBI) assets (the Ragnar Hall issue)

As demonstrated here above, there are more than enough assets in LBI, to cover all the Icesave liabilities of TIF.  The real problem lies in HOW the assets of LBI are being distributed, according to the current Icesave agreement. 

Here in Iceland, a prominent part of the Icesave discussion has been about something, which most of the time is called the "Ragnar Hall" issue, named after the supreme court lawyer that first pointed it out last summer.  Outside Iceland, this particular issue has received almost no publicity, but as it is one of the critical reasons behind the opposition to the current Icesave agreement in Iceland, explaining it further might be helpful for other people.

Basically, the Ragnar Hall issue involves whether each individual depositor claim should be treated as a single claim or not.  Without going to into too much legal detail, according to Icelandic bankruptcy laws, each claim should ALWAYS be treated as a single claim.  This has the effect, that when it comes to distributing assets recovered by the LBI, TIF should get paid first the 20K Euros, and then FSCS/DNB the rest, as they guaranteed Icesave deposits for more than the minimum of 20K Euros.

Although this issue is very clear, according to Icelandic bankruptcy laws (and most other countries also), apparently due to heavy pressure by the UK/Dutch negotiators, the Icelandic negotiation committee agreed with the demand, that each claim would be divided into two separate claims (TIF vs. FSCS/DNB), each with equal priority towards payments from LBI.  Even if TIF ends up getting paid the full amount, in accordance to Icelandic bankruptcy laws, the Icesave agreement requires TIF to pay money BACK  to FSCS/DNB, to ensure each fund gets equal percentage. For reference, see article 4.2(b) in the original settlement agreement:

http://www.island.is/media/eydublod/settlement-agreement.pdf

This has the unfortunate consequence, that TIF will only receive partial payment towards its original 20K claim, even if there are more than enough funds recovered by LBI to cover the full 20K.  At the moment the estimate is anywhere between 75% and 90%, with the most recent report by LBI winding-up board putting it currently at 88%.

For more detailed legal reasoning on this particular issue, see for example the Mischon de Reya report, which can be found here (pages 15-24 and 78-79):

http://www.althingi.is/pdf/umsogn.php4?lthing=138&malnr=76&dbnr=835&nefnd=fl

The Ragnar Hall issue was actually mostly resolved in the so called "amendments" that the Icelandic parliament Althingi passed into laws August 2009, but they were later watered down again to almost nothing during the subsequent negotiations this fall/winter with FSCS/DNB for the second agreement.

4. Interest payments from TIF to FSCS/DNB

The second important issue behind the opposition of the current agreement in Iceland, is the interest that is being charged while everyone waits for the winding-up boards to finish recovering the assets of LBI.  According to the current agreement, Iceland is required to pay 5.55% interest on the whole 4.0B Euro guarantee, until the recovery payments start coming in from LBI.  These payments can easily end up being delayed due to potential lawsuits by other creditors of LBI, that currently are estimated to receive nothing towards their own claims (as the deposits have priority).

This agreement is considered fundamentally unfair by people in Iceland, as typically in bankruptcy proceedings, no one can legally make additional claims on interest payments.  This means, that any interest payments to FSCS/DNB, will always have to be paid directly by Iceland, as they cannot be recovered from the bankruptcy proceedings.

The interest payments on the Icesave guarantee, amounts alone to around 200M Euros per year.  This will be accrued and added to the debt for the first 7 years and then paid down in the subsequent 8 years (2016-2024).  The total interest payments are estimated to end up being somewhere between 1.5B and 2.0B Euros, which is MUCH MORE than the estimated Icesave guarantee payments by Iceland (0.5B-1.0B Euros).  If these amounts are compared against the total population of Iceland (320K), we can easily compute that this equals close to 10K Euros per person in Iceland, or 40K Euros for each 4-person family.

5. What is Iceland then committed to pay for Icesave?

The people in Iceland are fully committed to pay their fair share for Icesave.  As has been shown here, the question is not about whether to pay for Icesave, but rather how much more than is actually required, it should pay.  The current Icesave agreement is likely to be voted down in the national referendum, now scheduled for March 2010.  This is due to the fierce opposition it faces in Iceland, as the current agreement is considered to be fundamentally unfair.  The question then comes up how to resolve the issue in a fair and equitable manner.  There are at least three solutions available that would be relatively easy to implement. 

A) The first solution would be to hand over the whole LBI bankruptcy estate over to FSCS/DNB and let them recover their claims directly.  It is already clear that they will always receive everything from the bankruptcy anyway and its assets are more than enough to cover all the obligations by Iceland.

B) The second solution is to remove from the current agreement, all references related to the Ragnar Hall issue, so all payments from LBI will be done according to the existing bankruptcy laws in Iceland.  This will still require Iceland to pay interest on the 4.0B Euro debt, but the interest payments would be much lower, since it would now receive recovery payments from the LBI much faster, as it would not have to share them first equally with FSCS/DNB.

C) The third solution would be to somehow lower the interest payments/rate that Iceland is required to pay on the 4.0B Euro debt.  This is basically a fairness issue, as it is already very clear that Iceland is not the only one that is to blame for this mess, and it therefore it should not be the only one that pays for it.  This option could be implemented in different ways, such as:

    i) Lower the 5.55% interest rate itself down to a more manageable 2-4% level
    ii) Not charge interest for the first 7 years while waiting for the LBI payments
    iii) Only charge interest on the actual amount that Iceland guarantees and not the LBI payments.
     
All of the above solutions would help lower the guarantee payments by Iceland down to much more manageable level and still be fair to everyone involved.  Iceland is still always absolutely committed to pay in full for the Icesave obligation.  The only question is whether Iceland should be forced to pay so much more than is actually required, that it faces an insurmountable debt for decades to come.

mbl.is Lipietz: Veikur mįlstašur
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Raunveruleg lausn hjį Icesave deilunni!


Eitt sem lķtiš hefur veriš rętt hingaš til, er hver eru raunverulegu fjįrhagslegu įhrifin af Ragnar Hall įkvęšinu.  Žar sem žarna er um mjög stórar upphęšir aš ręša, yfir 200 milljarša, gęti žetta eina atriši mögulega veriš nóg til aš koma į įsęttanlegri lausn fyrir Icesave deiluna.


Bakgrunnur

Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš gengur śt į hvort kröfur frį ķslenska tryggingasjóšnum hafi įkvešinn forgang į kröfur Bresku og Hollensku sjóšanna.  Ég ętla ekki aš fara ķ langar śtlistanir į lagalegu rökunum fyrir žessu, Ragnar Hall gerši žaš vel strax ķ upphafi.  Ķ skżrslunni frį Mischon de Reya, sem mikiš var tekist į um fyrir įramót, er fjallaš um žetta atriši żtarlega og nokkur góš dęmi gefin til śtskżringa (bls. 15-24 og 78-79):

http://www.althingi.is/pdf/umsogn.php4?lthing=138&malnr=76&dbnr=835&nefnd=fl

Hér ętla ég bara aš vķsa ķ eina grein į blašsķšu 16 sem lżsir mįlinu mjög vel:

"The treatment of each deposit as a single undivided claim is such a basic principle in law that we can only assume it would also be applicable under Icelandic insolvency law, as the nature of the claim itself does not change towards Landsbanki, no matter what the contractual position between TIF and FSCS.  Under English law, it would not be possible to create, out of one single claim against an insolvent estate, two claims (still less two claims with different levels of priority, although the two parties who thereafter "shared" the claim might agree between themselves to divide recoveries other than equally)."

Ég held aš žaš fari ekki į milli nokkura mįla aš Ragnar Hall hefur haft rétt fyrir sér varšandi žetta atriši alveg frį upphafi.


Nśverandi staša Landsbankans

Žaš eru ķ grundvallaratrišum žrķr forgangs-kröfuhafar ķ gamla Landsbankann (LBI): Ķslenski tryggingasjóšurinn (TIF), breski tryggingasjóšurinn (FSCS), og hollenski tryggingasjóšurinn (DNB).  Allar greišslur sem TIF fęr frį LBI, verša sjįlfkrafa sendar strax įfram til FSCS og DNB til nišurgreišslu į IceSave lįninu, žannig aš lokum fara allar eignir sem innheimtast hjį LBI hvort sem er til žeirra beggja.

Skilanefnd LBI birtir reglulega skżrslur um hvernig innheimtan gengur og hver stašan er.  Listi yfir nżjustu skżrslurnar mį finna hér:

http://lbi.is/creditorinformation/creditormeetings/

Samkvęmt nżjustu skżrslunni žį er stašan nśna žannig (mišaš viš evrugengiš ķ dag 180.5):

Samtals eignir gamla Landsbanka: 819ma. ISK (4.5B Evrur)
Skuldabréf frį Nżja Landsbanka:
345ma. ISK (1.9B Evrur)
Samtals eignir meš skuldabréfi:
1164ma. ISK (6.4B Evrur)

Į móti žessu eru skuldirnar mišaš viš 22. Aprķl 2009:

Samtals skuldir: 3427ma. ISK (19.0B Euros)
Samtals innistęšur: 1319ma. ISK (7.3B Euros)

Samkvęmt žessum upplżsingum žį munu fįst um žaš bil 88% (1164 / 1319) upp ķ kröfur vegna Icesave.  Til einföldunar žį geri ég rįš fyrir aš allar innistęšur listašar žarna fyrir LBI séu vegna Icesave, en žaš eru mögulega einhverjar ašrar tegundir af innistęšum žarna inni lķka.

Heildarkröfurnar fyrir Icesave (įšur en byrjaš er aš greiša inn frį LBI) eru 2350 milljónir punda og 1329 milljónir evra, sem gera samtals um 715 milljarša (4.0B Evra).  Ef viš göngum śt frį aš matiš 88% endurheimtur, sé nokkurn veginn rétt (fyrri möt hafa veriš 75-90%), žį getum viš nśna reiknaš śt nokkuš nįkvęmlega hvaša įhrif Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš mögulega getur haft į vęntanlegar įbyrgšargreišslur ķslenska rķkisins.


Śtreikningur mišaš viš Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš sé ekki virkt (nżi samningurinn)

Ef ekki er tekiš tillit til Ragnar Hall įkvęšisins, žį mun TIF fį greitt um žaš bil 629 milljarša (3.5B Evra) frį LBI, žannig aš įbyrgšargreišslur ķslenska rķkisins į eftirstöšvunum verša eitthvaš ķ kring um 86 milljaršar (0.5B Evra).  En žaš er aušvitaš ekki stęrsti hlutinn, žar sem fyrstu 7.5 įrin bętast viš vextir į eftirstöšvar 715 milljaršana sem veršur lķklega eitthvaš nįlęgt 255 milljaršar (1.4B Evra), og sķšan nęstu 8 įrin verša vaxtagreišslurnar nįlęgt 78 milljaršar (0.4B Evra).

Žetta gerir žvķ samtals įbyrgšargreišslur ķslenska rķkisins meš vöxtum u.ž.b. 419 milljaršar (2.3B Evra).   FSCS og DNB munu auk žess fį greitt samtals 1164 milljarša (6.4B Evra), sem samanstendur af 629 milljaršar (3.5B Evra) frį TIF og 534 milljaršar (3.0B Evra) beint frį Landsbankanum.  Samtals heildargreišslur til FSCS/DNB verša žvķ 1583 milljaršar (8.8B Evra).


Śtreikningur mišaš viš Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš sé virkt (gamli samningurinn)

Ef tekiš er, aftur į móti, tillit til Ragnar Hall įkvęšisins, žį mun TIF fį sjįlfkrafa greitt fulla 715 milljarša (4.0B Evra) frį LBI, žannig aš engar frekari beinar įbyrgšargreišslur falla į ķslenska rķkiš.  Samkvęmt samningnum, mun Ķsland samt alltaf žurfa aš greiša vexti, en žeir verša nś mun lęgri žar sem LBI greišslurnar munu koma inn tvöfalt hrašar.  Fyrstu 7.5 įrin bętast viš vextir į eftirstöšvar 715 milljaršana sem veršur lķklega eitthvaš nįlęgt 175 milljaršar (1.0B Evra), og sķšan nęstu 8 įrin verša vaxtagreišslurnar nįlęgt 40 milljaršar (0.2B Evra).

Žetta gerir žvķ samtals įbyrgšargreišslur ķslenska rķkisins į vöxtum u.ž.b. 215 milljaršar (1.2B Evra).   FSCS og DNB munu auk žess fį greitt samtals 1164 milljarša (6.4B Evra), sem samanstendur af 715 milljaršar (4.0B Evra) frį TIF og 448 milljaršar (2.4B Evra) beint frį Landsbankanum.  Samtals heildargreišslur til FSCS/DNB verša žvķ 1378 milljaršar (7.6B Evra).


Nišurstaša

Mismunurinn į įbyrgšargreišslum ķslenska rķkisins eftir žvķ hvort Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš er virkt, er žvķ um žaš bil 419 - 215 = 204 milljaršar (2.3 - 1.2 = 1.1B Evra).  Žaš sem helst gęti breytt nišurstöšunni eitthvaš, er hve hratt greišslurnar koma inn frį LBI.  Ķ bįšum tilvikum reiknaši ég meš engri greišslu 2009, og sķšan jöfnum greišslum frį LBI nęstu 6.5 įrin fyrir fyrri kostinn, og nęstu 3.5 įrin fyrir seinni kostinn, vegna tvöfalt hrašari endurgreišslna frį LBI til TIF ķ žvķ tilviki.  Ef greišslurnar koma inn hrašar frį LBI žį lękka vextirnir, en ef žęr koma inn hęgar, til dęmis vegna lögsókna frį öšrum kröfuhöfum, žį hękka vextirnir.  Mismunurinn į heildar įbyrgšargreišslunum vegna Ragnar Halls įkvęšisins, helst samt nokkuš vel hlutfallslega.  Allur śtreikningur į vaxtagreišslum var geršur upprunalega ķ Evrum žar sem lįnin eru öll ķ erlendri mynt.


Rökręšur į IceNews.is

Ég hef, įsamt nokkrum öšrum Ķslendingum, nśna sķšustu mįnuši veriš ķ miklum rökręšum viš żmsa śtlendinga į IceNews vefsķšunni (icenews.is) og aš skżra śt okkar mįlstaš.  Žessir erlendu ašilar eru yfirleitt mjög haršir ķ horn aš taka og gefa alls ekkert eftir.  Žaš er žvķ mjög athyglisvert aš sjį žarna hvaša rök hjį okkur virka og hvaš virkar ekki.  Til dęmis, Ķslendingar eigi aš standa viš skuldbindingar sķnar og engar refjar.  Žeir eru yfirleitt mjög haršir į aš greišslur haldi įfram eftir 2024.  Varšandi vextina žį eru žeir ķ sjįlfu sér ekkert endilega fastir į prósentunni 5.55%, en žeir benda oft į aš Ķsland eigi litla möguleika į aš fį lįn į betri vöxtum annarstašar.  En žaš er athyglisvert aš hvaš varšar Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš, žį hefur hingaš til enginn žeirra tekiš upp hanskann fyrir žvķ og samžykkja žaš jafnvel aš žarna höfum viš lķklega rétt fyrir okkur.


Möguleg lausn į Icesave deilunni

Žaš er greinilegt į śtreikningunum hér aš ofan, aš Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš skiptir verulegu mįli fjįrhagslega fyrir Ķsland.  Ekki bara varšandi greišslurnar frį LBI, heldur hefur žaš einnig mikil įhrif į vaxtagreišslurnar (sem eru og verša alltaf ašalvandamįliš fyrir okkur).  Mķn tillaga aš į lausn Icesave deilunnar, er žvķ aš taka nżja samninginn eins og hann er nśna (žó hann hafi ennžį aušvitaš żmis önnur vandamįl), og leggja meginįhersluna į aš fį Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš aftur inn aš fullu.  Heildarsparnašurinn fyrir ķslenska žjóšarbśiš į žessu eina atriši, yrši lķklega yfir 200 milljarša!

Žessi lausn er frekar einföld ķ śtfęrslu žar sem žetta mį gera meš žvķ aš taka einfaldlega śt allar setningarnar ķ samningnum sem breyta forgangi į greišslum frį LBI.  Varšandi žau rök aš Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš sé ennžį inn ķ nżja samningnum, žį bendi ég į greiningu Mischon de Reya hér aš ofan og margra annarra lögfręšinga, žar į mešal Ragnari Hall sjįlfum. Žaš er mjög mikilvęgt aš koma Bretum og Hollendingum ķ skilning um, aš žaš er mjög ólķklegt aš Icesave samningurinn verši nokkurn tķman samžykktur, nema Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš verši aftur aš fullu virkt.

Žaš besta er aš žaš er mjög aušvelt aš rökstyšja Ragnar Hall įkvęšiš gagnvart erlendum ašilum réttlętislega, įn žess aš žurfa aš fara ķ mikla lagakróka.  Žetta er einfaldlega rétt samkvęmt öllum stöšlušum gjaldžrota venjum og hefši aldrei įtt aš vera sett inn ķ upprunalega samningnum. Bretar og Hollendingar mundu žvķ eiga mjög aušvelt aš réttlęta žessa breytingu įn žess aš minnka ķ įliti heima fyrir.

Viš getum lķka bitiš ķ skjaldarrendurnar og fariš meš mįliš ķ hart.  Sagt NEI ķ žjóšarathvęšagreišslunni og heimtaš aš Bretar og Hollendingar setjist aftur aš samningaboršinu og byrja alveg upp į nżtt.  Žetta gęti tekist og viš endaš meš mun betri samning, en lķkurnar eru žó aš žetta muni verša mjög erfitt og alls ekki vķst um žeir séu einu sinni tilbśnir til nżrra višręšna į žeim grundvelli.  Skašinn fyrir alla ašila, žar meš tališ Ķslendinga, getur aušveldlega oršiš mjög mikill.  Rökrétt hugsun er žvķ aš leita einfaldra breytinga į nśverandi samningum (žó žeir séu slęmir), sem allir ašilar geta sęst viš, ĮŠUR en žjóšarathvęšagreišslan fer fram!

 


mbl.is Bjarni: Eigum ašra kosti
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Gott aš sjį Lilja var meš kjark til aš lesa nżja IceSave frumvarpiš og mynda sér sķšan sķna eigin raunverulega skošun!

Ķ Silfri Egils nśna rétt įšan kom Lilja Mósesdóttir fram og sagšist hafa įkvešiš aš styšja EKKI nżja IceSave frumvarpiš.  Žetta er nįttśrulega stórfrétt sem mikiš mun verša fjallaš um nęstu daga.  Žaš sem ég tók nś samt best eftir žarna ķ žęttinum, var eftirfarandi setning Lilju: 

"Sķšan  les ég frumvarpiš sem nśna liggur fyrir žinginu og ég get bara ekki samžykkt žetta"

Žess vęri óskandi aš fleiri žingmenn fęru nś aš dęmi hennar og raunverulega lęsu yfir nżja IceSave frumvarpiš. 

Viš žurfum aš gera okkur fulla grein fyrir efnahagslegum afleišingum frumvarpsins, įšur en žaš er "sjįlfkrafa" samžykkt.  Eins og ég hef fjallaš um hér ķ fyrri fęrslum hér, hér, hér, og hér, eru žvķ mišur margir stórir vankantar į nżja frumvarpinu eins og žaš var samiš.


mbl.is Getur ekki samžykkt Icesave
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Žaš er eitthvaš gruggugt viš žessa śtreikninga į 253 milljöršum króna fyrir Icesave

Ég var aš skoša śtreikningana į bak viš žessa frétt, žar sem kemur fram aš įętluš skuldbinding Ķslendinga vegna Icesave reikninganna verši um žaš bil 253 milljaršar króna, ef mišaš er viš 89% endurheimtur śr Landsbankanum.  Ķ fréttinni er vķsaš ķ nżja IceSave-frumvarpiš žar sem birt er eftirfarandi tafla "samkvęmt śtreikningum sešlabankans" į blašsķšu 37:

    Endurheimtur75%89%94%
    Skuld ķ millj. evra778.2561.3483.9
    Skuld ķ millj. punda1376.1992.7855.8
    Skuld ķ milljöršum kr.351.3253.4218.5
    Nśvirši viš lok240.7173.6149.7

http://www.althingi.is/altext/138/s/pdf/0076.pdf

Ég fę samkvęmt mķnum śtreikningum nokkurn vegin sömu skuldatölur reiknaš ķ pundum og evrum žannig aš ég geri rįš fyrir aš žeir séu réttir.  Žaš sem ég fę alls ekki til aš stemma, er yfirfęrslan yfir ķ ķslenskar krónur mišaš viš nśverandi gengi į pundum og evrum eša jafnvel gengi sķšustu mįnaša. 

Hér er til dęmis śtreikningur į heildarskuldinni sem mišar viš mešalgengiš fyrir október:

    GjaldmišillUpphęšGengiKrónur
    EUR561.3183.483103.0
    GBP992.7199.356197.9
    Samtals  300.9

Ķ žeim hremmingum sem ganga nś yfir, getur gengi krónunnar óneitanlega sveiflast nokkuš mikiš.  En ég varš samt aš fara alveg aftur til mars 2009, žegar krónan var óvenjulega hį, til aš finna gengi sem gęti gefiš nišurstöšu sem var eitthvaš nįlęgt žessum 253 milljöršum evra sem nefndar voru.  Getur žaš veriš aš Sešlabanki Ķslands sé aš vinna śtreikninga, um mįlefni sem er žetta mikilvęgt, mišaš viš 6 mįnaša śrelt gengi?  Ég held aš žaš sé algjört lįgmark aš allir śtreikningar sem vķsaš er ķ séu birtir opinberlega, žannig aš hęgt sé aš fara yfir žį og stašfesta hvort žeir séu réttir eša ekki.

Aš lokum vil ég endurtaka, žaš sem hefur komiš fram nokkrum sinnum hjį mér įšur, er aš žar sem IceSave skuldbindingar eru allar ķ erlendum myntum og verša aš lokum aš borgast ķ žeim, žį veršum viš einnig aš gera alla okkar grunnśtreikninga fyrst ķ erlendu myntunum.  Eftir į mį sķšan yfirfęra nišurstöšurnar yfir ķ ķslenskar krónur, svo fremi sem gengiš, sem mišaš er viš, sé žį einnig gefiš upp.


mbl.is 253 milljarša skuldbinding
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Gunnar Tómasson: "Greišslufall žjóšarbśsins veršur vart umflśiš"

Vil vekja athygli į žessari aškallandi greinargerš sem Gunnar Tómasson, hagfręšingur ķ Bandarķkjunum, sem um įratugaskeiš var starfsmašur Alžjóšagjaldeyrissjóšsins, sendi žingmönnum ķ gęr.  Hśn er birt hérna aš fullu į Pressunni:

http://www.pressan.is/Frettir/LesaFrett/akall-gunnars-tomassonar-hagfraedings-til-thingmanna-stefnir-i-greidsluthrot-


Af hverju liggur svona ofbošslega mikiš į aš skrifa undir Icesave?

Ętlar rķkisstjórnin virkilega aš endurtaka sömu mistökin frį žvķ ķ sumar, meš žvķ aš skrifa undir nżja samkomulagiš nśna strax, įn žess aš viš fįum aš lesa žaš fyrst?  Žaš er bśiš aš birta yfirlżsingu rķkisstjórnarinnar, samanburš viš fyrri samning, og yfirlit um réttindi og skyldur Ķslands, en ekki samninginn sjįlfann!

Žaš var ekki fyrr en allir žrķr samningarnir (viš Breta, viš Hollendinga, auk "leyni"-settlement samningurinn) voru birtir opinberlega, eftir mikiš ströggl um sumariš, aš öll vandamįlin viš žį fóru aš koma upp į yfirboršiš. Nśna žegar hefur komiš ķ ljós aš vaxtagreišslurnar eru undanskildar frį 6% žakinu sem efnahagslegu višmišin settu fram. Žetta gerir upphaflegu fyrirvarana meira og minna gagnslausa, žar sem vextirnir eru langstęrsti hlutinn af heildargreišslunum, eins og ég sżndi fram į ķ žessari fęrslu.

Žaš er eitt aš gera mistök, annaš og mun verra er aš endurtaka žau aftur og aftur.


mbl.is Kvittaš fyrir Icesave
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

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